Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):
Linda Ketner (D): 37
Henry Brown (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±5%)
Rob Miller (D): 35
Joe Wilson (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Daniel Johnson (D): 37
Patrick McHenry (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±5%)
If a year ago… or heck, even a month ago… you’d told someone that we’d be looking at dyed-in-the-wool dark-red southern districts like SC-01, SC-02, or NC-10 as being potentially competitive, derisive laughter would have been the proper response.
Well, here we are talking about them. While these numbers don’t suggest that the GOP is likely to lose any of them, these districts shouldn’t even be up for discussion. Consider that these districts are R+10, R+9, and R+15, and imagine the mirror image, which would be, say, the Democrats having to sweat the loss of MA-06, NY-04, and MA-01 while watching more precarious seats slip away from them.
The only race of the three that’s within the single digits is the suddenly very-interesting SC-01 race between incumbent Henry Brown (at this point, probably best known for his lack of fire safety skills) and businesswoman and philanthropist Linda Ketner in this Charleston-based district. The idea of a Deep South district (although this Lowlands district is less evangelical than the stereotypical southern district) electing not just a progressive but an openly lesbian representative is nothing short of mind-boggling, but with the DCCC jumping in and Ketner able to self-finance too, it can’t be ruled out.
There’s a Democratic surge across the South.
Right across the river from Linda Ketner’s SC-01 is GA-01 with a PVI R+13. There Bill Gillespie is challenging reichtwinger Jack Kingston, and the Democrat got more votes in the primary than the incumbent did in his. Registration and early voting is looking good in this part of Georgia, too. But nobody is polling there, so we can all safely assume that it’s a Repub lock and ignore it … or maybe not?
But 11%, 12%, and 15% are a lot of percentages to make up a week before the election when the other guy only needs 3%-0% to get over 50%.
In 2006, SC-1 was 60%-35% blowout
SC-2 63%-37%
NC-10 62%-38%
As you can see where the undecideds go really dictates if we gain any ground from 2006 in these districts. Unfortunately, I really dont see us gaining many more percentage points in any of these races and the little bit that we do gain can probably be chalked up to increased AA voters which reflects nothing on any actual movement in the South, simply higher turnout which is key to winning races and changing election outcomes obviously, but I really dont see how we win any of these seats within a week. Not based off of these numbers anyway.
Or is that one of the Red to Blue districts they’re not invested in financially?
If they are spending money in an R+10 district in a state Obama will lose, I again question why Becky Greenwald has not gotten more help in her D+0 district in a state Obama will win big.
Although, like most people here, I’m primarily interested in the possible pick-up of SC-01, where Linda Ketner would be the 2nd openly lesbian/homosexual member elected to congress (there have still been no openly gays elected to my knowledge). If Brown were to somehow say something anti-gay, would that then become another Bachmann statement that could possibly lead to the influx of hundreds of thousands of dollars from across the country of gay organizations, progressives and maybe the DCCC seeing a new pickup opportunity to blow some money in? Perhaps. This race has definitely become interesting.
I view people like Ketner Johnson and Miller and even Gillespie as 2 shot deals.
They are candidates that have no recognition going on that are exciting candidates that simply need to build up recognition and organization. They take this year to do that and they have all done decently well in that regard. Then, they come back in 2010 and try again. This time, the DCCC will recognize their strengths much earlier and the support they already have will drive them much higher next time. There are several such candidates out there this year and we will have to work hard to get them to try for 2010.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
At first glance I thought the poll oversampled Dems by giving us a 3% edge in voters. But after looking at the MD elections website Dems do have an edge in registration. That edge has likely grown since the primary regitration which is their most recent update of registration.
http://www.elections.state.md….